Can Nokia's Xiao Guo model, which Microsoft can't control, succeed?

A "role" that Microsoft can't control, is Guo Taiming really competent?

In less than two months, Guo Taiming, the president of Hon Hai Group, took another big international brand.

On May 18th, Hon Hai's subsidiary, Fu Zhikang, joined hands with Finnish startup HMD Global Oy to announce that it will purchase US$3 billion, equivalent to NT$10 billion, to acquire Microsoft's Nokia-enabled mobile phone business, and will be responsible for its design in the future. , manufacturing, sales and after-sales service.

In September 2013, Microsoft spent NT$210 billion to buy Nokia’s mobile phone division. In less than three years, the marriage officially broke. Today, Microsoft is not only out of the feature phone business; in October 2016, when the smartphone license agreement signed by Microsoft and Nokia expires, Hon Hai will also launch a Nokia-branded smartphone to help the former leader return to the market.

This also means that in the future, as long as you see the "Nokia" mobile phone with blue and white lettering, the trader behind it is Guo Taiming.

Guo Donggang bought Sharp, which had a loss of more than 250 billion yen in 2015, and bought Nokia, which lost market share. Why did he buy big money in a row and a half?

Even with the zero growth of Apple's mobile phone shipments in 2016, what do he think is that this already declining mobile phone brand can be done in his hands?

We interviewed Yang Yingchao, former managing director of Barclays, who is known as "the most understanding of Hon Hai's analysts." Here is his first-hand analysis:

When Fu Zhikang was listed in Hong Kong in 2004, half of the business was from Nokia and Motorola. At that time, there was no smartphone. Later, when the iPhone came out, the two were beaten up and Fu Zhikang (revenue) fell. Now with Nokia, at least revenue can be stabilized first.

Fu Wenkang Chairman Tong Wenxin also knows that he wants to transform. This is a bit like Hon Hai bought Sharp, Fu Zhikang bought Nokia (yes) has to (the decision), its existing customers can not grow, so only with the same customers Do something, I used to be a foundry. Now I am going to Maori's service and brand. If I don't, how is it different from other OEMs? Gross profit is always 2, 3%.

Fighting transformation, taking this one brand dream

Fu Zhikang will make a Nokia phone in the future and will definitely use the Sharp panel. When Guo Taiming built his own supply chain, he always talked about the concept of “seaport” when he bought Sharp from Hon Hai. The assembly company has absolutely influence on the procurement of parts. Everyone thinks that Apple parts are dominated by Apple. In fact, under the counter, Hon Hai is leading. Apple gives Hon Hai two or three companies (choose). Hon Hai said that this is not good. Apple does not dare to speak. .

Sharp (堺厂) lost money before, now make money, Hon Hai is using Sharp's panel, not a good question, but whether it is used (to decompose production capacity), do it well, can't use it or not The brand is another concept of the seaport. Now his brand and assembly are all packaged, that is, the bigger the sea.

Guo Dong has always had a brand dream. What he is doing now is similar to that of Lenovo (2014), but he can't hang the Hon Hai brand, but he does sales and service. Is this different from making a brand?

Fear of direct conflict with the customer, he had to change the way to do it (Editor: the current Nokia brand authorization is obtained by Finnish HMD, not directly obtained by Fu Zhikang), step by step.

And he can tell the customer: "You can also compare the Nokia model, I will help you design, manufacture, sell, you just have a brand." Customers may be too happy to have time, some help, do not have to manufacture, sell And inventory, the risk is lower for them.

I think he wants to be the world's millet (Editor: refers to the low-cost model of Xiaomi's success in China, copied to the world). Xiaomi cannot go out of China because of patent problems. If Hon Hai is completely devoid of this problem.

Next, do low-cost machine attack India

At that time, Lenovo bought Motorola to conduct market research. For the global consumers, the top three mobile phone brands in their hearts were Motorola, Nokia and iPhone. Even if Nokia’s business deteriorated, its name was hit, and consumers still had the impression. Knowing what it is doing, the brand benefits are still there.

He bought Nokia next step, definitely doing low-cost Android smartphones, targeting emerging markets. This market is very big. Like India, 3G and 4G are slowly doing, and the price sensitivity is still relatively high. This is not much conflict with the big customer Apple. The low-level can be impulse, the global one-year (smartphone) shipments are more than one billion, he only has to take a 10%.

So he was not surprised to buy Nokia. As early as 10 years ago, he bought the Nokia factory. Before Nokia sold the mobile phone to Microsoft, the tablet was not sold. The tablet department was later disbanded, but before the dissolution, Hon Hai knew. Then, Hon Hai bought it. The N1 tablet that Nokia had before was Hon Hai’s trade.

Guo Taiming has always dared to go against the trend. After the financial turmoil in 2009, even if the panel industry was very miserable, he was thinking about getting bigger, and the big one was conducive to competition. He bought the Tongbao when everyone was in a bad situation. Chi Mei Electric. Buying on dips, the price can buy well, otherwise, how much is he buying Sharp in 2012, how much is it now? (Editor's note: In 2012, the original Hon Hai and Sharp traded a transaction amount of 499 yen, after breaking the deal, re-negotiating in 2016, 1 share of 128 yen)

Of course, there are risks in buying low, but at least compared to Microsoft, he buys Nokia is complementary: Nokia has patents, brands, channels, and it needs Fuzhikang's fast, low-cost manufacturing capabilities. There are some millet, they all have, Xiaomi does not, they also made up. So I think this is a "best merger" for Fu Zhikang.

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